I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but having done a lot of reflection in the past few months, both on my own political predictions and on how our politics has changed. Getting outside of my blue circle and reading various comments in which anyone, liberal or conservative can comment, on predictit.org (a betting website), I have come to the dark realization that Trump can- not will, but can, be re-elected in 2020 for a few reasons- which is the reason why whatever state we reside in, we need to be sure to vote then. Over the next few years I will be thinking about these points- and I think you should too.

1. Trump surprised most of America in 2016. It was clear that in the days before the election Hillary was slipping in polls and Trump was gaining, but most forecasters on election day gave her at least a 70% chance to win the presidency, and few pundits predicted that she would lose Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, and nearly lose Minnesota.
2. Low Democratic voter turnout. This is a major reason why Trump won- he was able to offset the low voter turnout amongst minorities and millennials who opposed him by successfully turning out white working class voters to vote in his favor. How did he suppress this turnout? He didn’t- Hillary suppressed it largely by being a scandalous and weak candidate, and by targeting red states such as Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina, and allowing a belief that she would win the election by a landslide to occur- leading to voters who didn’t like Trump believing that their vote didn’t matter. Trump on the other hand, successfully turned out his voters by repeatedly campaigning in rural midwestern areas. History could repeat itself and he could do the same thing again.
3. White working class voters. I know that many Democrats believe that Trump has promised these people too much and they will come home to their party, but that thinking may lead to these voters being taken for granted by Democrats again. I was recently watching a documentary where a select few Trump voters were interviewed in Erie County, Pennsylvania, which turned red between 2012 and 2016. They did not have high expectations of Trump, saying that if he made lives in their communities even slightly better, they would vote for him again in hopes of even more progress being made. How can Trump make them believe their lives will get even better over the course of the next 4 years? His vague infrastructure proposal, if implemented, could potentially create jobs in the Rust Belt and lead his supporters in 2016 to voting for him again. If this proposal is not implemented, then he could also create the illusion that he is bringing back jobs to the Rust Belt by cutting several repeats of the Carrier deal- offering specific companies large tax cuts in exchange for their promises to save a few hundred jobs.
4. Trump’s master manipulation in the digital age. We have seen time and time again that Trump’s perceived childish temperament has helped him change the subject discussed by the media. To name one example: when the Access Hollywood tape was released, the mainstream media- and most Republicans, thought Trump simply could not win the election- but he successfully distracted us from focusing on the tape by threatening to prosecute Hillary Clinton on the debate stage. In the past week he accused President Obama of wiretapping him and the media stopped talking about his attorney general’s potential perjury in a confirmation hearing. Trump has also successfully insulted other candidates with insulting names and making their response to him difficult. Will these names stick and cause them to lose voters? I hope not. But did Little Marco think they would? Did Crooked Hillary think they would? Trump can easily come up with names to highlight his opponents weak spots- “Pocahontas” for Elizabeth Warren is one which he has already come up with. “Cunning Cory” could be his name for Senator Cory Booker if he is the Democratic nominee. In the age of click bait and short-term memories, Trump can easily get away with lying and distract attention away from his flaws and scandals to position himself to win on election day.

Below: The first picture is what the map looked like in 2016. The second one is what it could look like in 2020 if Trump makes a better case to the American people.